* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 10/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 37 35 32 29 23 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 37 35 32 29 23 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 34 34 34 34 33 32 31 29 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 27 16 12 8 13 9 24 34 26 24 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -4 -1 8 4 8 -3 -1 1 5 5 0 SHEAR DIR 222 233 219 185 129 88 351 344 347 1 25 27 327 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.4 26.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 153 151 152 143 138 137 134 131 122 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 131 129 130 128 128 120 113 114 114 114 108 100 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 -54.9 -54.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 54 52 46 44 44 45 48 53 58 56 53 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 14 12 11 8 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 51 37 15 -8 -33 -59 -44 -42 -45 -79 -80 -108 200 MB DIV -3 -14 -9 -17 -24 -28 -28 -9 -1 -7 -15 -17 -1 700-850 TADV 0 13 9 6 7 1 2 7 10 11 16 36 41 LAND (KM) 1506 1538 1571 1566 1564 1552 1613 1658 1637 1605 1525 1380 1305 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 3 5 9 15 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 25 20 17 13 7 3 2 15 18 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -14. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -12. -15. -19. -22. -25. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 10/02/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 10/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 10/02/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)