* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP972015 10/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 46 53 56 60 62 67 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 46 53 56 60 62 67 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 41 46 53 60 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 5 7 4 8 8 8 7 3 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -7 -3 0 1 0 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 224 233 210 181 174 150 100 84 93 84 125 321 319 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 153 153 153 154 154 152 151 150 150 148 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -50.9 -51.3 -50.6 -50.9 -50.3 -50.5 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 62 61 62 63 64 71 72 76 75 75 73 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 14 14 16 18 19 18 19 19 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 103 107 106 102 106 103 113 104 96 85 81 97 118 200 MB DIV 92 89 65 57 58 67 81 91 58 41 72 55 43 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 1 2 2 2 3 3 0 4 5 LAND (KM) 656 648 640 633 626 623 626 602 531 446 314 227 220 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.3 15.2 16.1 17.0 17.2 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 157.2 157.3 157.4 157.5 157.6 157.8 158.1 158.6 158.8 158.7 157.9 156.8 156.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 5 5 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 36 38 39 42 44 48 46 42 34 29 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 21. 28. 31. 35. 37. 42. 44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP972015 INVEST 10/02/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972015 INVEST 10/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##