* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP982015 10/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 39 47 53 58 58 61 63 61 66 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 39 47 53 58 58 61 63 61 66 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 43 47 52 57 58 56 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 17 20 16 15 12 21 17 17 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -2 2 0 7 9 6 8 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 202 215 174 149 139 129 109 154 185 196 186 188 140 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 161 162 162 163 162 163 164 163 162 159 158 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -50.8 -51.1 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 -50.0 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 56 50 49 50 51 55 61 64 64 62 56 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 19 21 25 26 26 26 27 27 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR 132 127 119 113 120 135 162 193 218 195 178 150 170 200 MB DIV 74 59 37 37 52 39 14 25 41 4 27 -3 -11 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 5 4 8 0 LAND (KM) 1636 1665 1695 1747 1799 1926 2013 1965 1806 1654 1595 1616 1695 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.1 12.0 11.8 13.0 14.9 16.6 17.5 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 172.8 173.2 173.6 174.1 174.6 175.4 175.6 174.9 174.0 173.6 173.9 174.5 175.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 6 4 5 9 9 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 43 45 48 49 47 50 47 43 49 49 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 16. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 17. 23. 28. 28. 31. 33. 31. 36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP982015 INVEST 10/02/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP982015 INVEST 10/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##