* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 24 25 26 28 32 32 30 28 30 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 24 25 26 28 32 32 30 28 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 25 27 28 30 30 30 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 5 6 9 11 11 7 12 13 19 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -7 -7 -6 0 7 9 11 8 13 11 9 SHEAR DIR 275 292 338 352 7 10 14 24 12 354 354 12 25 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 155 155 155 157 159 160 159 158 156 150 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 65 61 56 55 53 49 47 45 46 42 43 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 75 54 42 32 36 32 10 17 28 40 70 77 70 200 MB DIV 45 21 11 22 26 -6 4 25 28 11 2 -18 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1771 1807 1847 1905 1963 2114 2263 2408 2367 2196 1997 1767 1501 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.2 14.2 13.9 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.1 13.8 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 124.2 125.0 125.8 126.6 127.3 128.9 130.5 132.1 133.7 135.4 137.3 139.3 141.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 22 22 24 28 31 28 30 26 24 34 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 7. 7. 5. 3. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/02/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##