* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 116 114 112 106 96 84 77 68 62 55 44 V (KT) LAND 115 114 116 114 112 106 96 84 77 68 62 55 44 V (KT) LGE mod 115 113 111 110 109 107 96 80 71 66 62 58 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 11 19 22 26 27 29 24 29 32 47 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 16 8 0 3 4 2 0 3 2 1 6 16 SHEAR DIR 3 357 302 300 305 287 273 253 220 209 224 242 256 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.4 28.3 27.5 27.6 27.0 25.0 22.3 15.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 165 166 167 160 142 131 132 126 109 94 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 145 147 150 151 144 125 112 111 107 95 86 73 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.2 -50.0 -50.0 -50.0 -49.6 -49.4 -49.6 -50.2 -50.3 -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 8 8 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 61 63 59 58 60 62 63 63 57 49 41 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 36 34 35 38 39 37 37 37 39 42 44 850 MB ENV VOR 113 117 141 139 155 157 160 143 138 119 147 135 128 200 MB DIV 50 60 88 78 77 49 42 59 53 29 44 45 26 700-850 TADV 12 33 28 27 43 57 58 43 27 18 14 40 10 LAND (KM) 268 338 407 522 637 830 698 638 639 512 392 388 348 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.9 24.5 25.4 26.3 28.6 31.3 33.7 35.7 37.8 40.1 42.3 44.5 LONG(DEG W) 74.8 74.6 74.4 73.8 73.2 71.6 70.2 69.3 68.7 67.2 64.2 58.5 49.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 10 12 14 14 11 11 14 20 28 33 HEAT CONTENT 45 26 49 56 56 51 20 7 14 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -13. -25. -36. -45. -51. -56. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -16. -13. -10. -7. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. 2. 1. 3. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. -1. -3. -9. -19. -31. -38. -47. -53. -60. -71. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 30( 67) 27( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 65 39( 79) 2( 79) 0( 79) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)