* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 10/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 35 33 30 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 35 33 30 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 34 34 33 31 28 25 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 12 11 7 13 13 24 33 36 29 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 1 5 6 6 1 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 206 161 129 93 91 348 2 8 20 50 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 153 153 151 147 145 144 140 136 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 128 130 129 127 121 119 121 118 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.1 -54.2 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 47 44 42 42 46 53 62 61 60 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 14 12 10 7 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 31 15 -5 -26 -44 -65 -37 -66 -82 -118 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -6 -17 -16 -27 -47 -9 -7 -5 -14 -27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 6 1 2 0 2 7 5 9 12 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1572 1579 1587 1575 1565 1552 1532 1566 1655 1780 1825 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 5 5 3 3 6 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 25 24 19 15 9 5 4 4 5 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -18. -22. -22. -23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 10/02/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 10/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 10/02/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)