* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP972015 10/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 38 46 51 56 59 64 65 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 38 46 51 56 59 64 65 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 38 43 48 53 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 9 10 9 6 10 10 8 8 3 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -4 -1 -1 0 -4 -2 -5 -4 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 214 169 158 163 174 121 112 90 104 92 123 214 214 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 155 153 154 154 152 151 150 149 146 142 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 63 62 64 68 68 70 71 73 69 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 18 20 20 22 22 23 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 105 108 109 108 101 99 94 91 100 94 111 160 158 200 MB DIV 72 59 61 73 83 75 75 68 30 32 51 34 19 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 7 10 13 LAND (KM) 646 633 620 605 591 570 530 462 374 259 167 151 269 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.7 16.6 17.6 18.9 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 156.8 156.7 156.6 156.3 156.1 156.2 156.5 156.8 156.7 156.0 154.8 153.5 152.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 31 31 30 32 36 42 41 38 35 31 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. -19. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 9. 12. 12. 14. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 34. 39. 40. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP972015 INVEST 10/02/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972015 INVEST 10/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##