* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP982015 10/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 40 44 51 53 56 56 58 64 72 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 40 44 51 53 56 56 58 64 72 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 39 41 43 47 49 52 58 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 9 22 21 16 15 12 7 13 7 7 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 6 6 3 3 4 0 0 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 237 163 155 158 162 131 158 163 213 244 257 18 34 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 160 160 161 161 162 162 163 162 162 163 164 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -50.4 -50.4 -49.9 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 53 54 59 63 60 63 60 56 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 20 20 20 21 19 19 18 17 19 22 850 MB ENV VOR 126 128 136 144 148 155 183 179 195 176 162 174 181 200 MB DIV 49 34 43 44 44 24 12 20 28 66 11 -8 32 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 4 5 7 9 LAND (KM) 1695 1697 1699 1722 1745 1819 1866 1862 1833 1832 1875 1943 1987 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.9 13.4 14.2 15.1 15.4 15.2 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 172.8 172.9 173.0 173.2 173.3 174.0 174.6 174.9 175.1 175.6 176.2 176.8 176.9 STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 5 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 48 47 47 48 48 50 50 51 51 52 53 56 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 6. 8. 6. 6. 5. 4. 7. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 21. 23. 26. 26. 28. 34. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP982015 INVEST 10/02/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP982015 INVEST 10/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##