* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 36 34 34 34 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 36 34 34 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 30 31 31 31 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 7 7 11 12 11 10 14 19 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -6 -7 -5 5 7 10 11 14 10 6 5 SHEAR DIR 301 339 9 14 34 18 26 35 24 10 25 41 45 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 154 154 155 156 158 160 160 159 157 156 152 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 63 58 57 53 53 50 49 49 49 47 50 49 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 62 49 34 39 45 24 8 20 33 49 58 40 4 200 MB DIV 40 26 37 41 28 14 25 40 57 18 -15 -19 -7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1925 1955 1988 2041 2095 2224 2350 2479 2382 2223 2050 1864 1650 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.1 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.4 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 125.5 126.2 126.9 127.6 128.2 129.5 130.9 132.3 133.8 135.3 136.9 138.5 140.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 19 20 22 26 30 31 32 25 23 27 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 11. 9. 9. 9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/02/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##