* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 110 111 110 103 97 88 84 77 71 66 58 V (KT) LAND 110 110 110 111 110 103 97 88 84 77 71 66 58 V (KT) LGE mod 110 108 107 107 107 102 93 82 75 71 69 66 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 17 21 19 26 23 22 17 23 22 30 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 11 0 3 6 0 1 0 5 -3 4 7 15 SHEAR DIR 342 306 300 303 295 278 261 232 196 214 210 237 237 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.1 28.0 27.3 27.5 26.8 25.5 22.2 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 167 165 155 138 128 131 124 114 94 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 147 150 152 149 138 122 110 110 106 101 88 81 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 -49.5 -49.6 -49.8 -50.4 -50.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 8 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 60 60 62 63 62 61 56 53 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 33 36 37 37 39 39 41 41 42 44 46 850 MB ENV VOR 124 135 136 150 147 148 138 139 140 132 137 160 185 200 MB DIV 62 75 81 86 79 41 63 26 53 23 44 67 83 700-850 TADV 26 26 27 35 48 51 49 32 16 15 -16 17 4 LAND (KM) 321 407 494 631 770 826 758 749 636 546 514 466 719 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.5 25.2 26.2 27.2 29.3 31.9 34.4 36.5 38.6 40.4 42.5 44.5 LONG(DEG W) 74.8 74.4 74.0 73.1 72.2 70.6 68.9 67.8 67.3 65.0 60.7 53.7 44.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 13 13 13 14 12 12 16 24 32 35 HEAT CONTENT 25 49 53 54 40 40 10 8 13 10 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -11. -23. -32. -41. -46. -50. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -13. -10. -6. -3. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 7. 6. 6. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 0. -7. -13. -22. -26. -33. -39. -44. -52. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 29( 50) 29( 64) 25( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 60 6( 62) 1( 63) 0( 63) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)