* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 10/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 35 34 32 30 26 22 17 17 16 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 35 34 32 30 26 22 17 17 16 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 36 36 36 35 34 32 29 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 8 13 17 7 21 33 29 30 25 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 6 5 1 13 1 -3 0 0 3 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 221 164 120 94 102 79 3 359 15 36 68 84 120 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 150 152 152 149 146 144 143 140 137 133 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 127 129 127 123 120 118 118 116 113 109 108 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -55.3 -54.9 -54.4 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 48 44 43 40 42 43 49 60 63 61 53 48 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 10 9 8 6 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 10 -1 -22 -42 -62 -61 -49 -67 -94 -117 -153 -169 200 MB DIV -25 -18 -24 -20 -26 -37 -18 -20 0 -28 -2 -15 25 700-850 TADV 8 0 1 0 0 2 4 6 8 12 0 5 0 LAND (KM) 1631 1622 1613 1590 1567 1594 1639 1661 1690 1741 1821 1805 1736 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 3 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 27 23 19 15 15 14 12 10 6 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -18. -18. -19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 10/02/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 10/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 10/02/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)