* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP972015 10/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 53 57 59 60 66 66 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 53 57 59 60 66 66 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 38 39 41 44 47 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 6 4 9 10 15 14 16 6 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 4 2 1 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 170 166 164 176 166 120 96 75 59 54 53 223 233 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 154 153 153 153 152 152 150 149 146 145 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -50.8 -51.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.4 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 62 64 64 64 68 69 71 69 70 66 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 17 18 20 22 23 23 22 24 23 26 850 MB ENV VOR 110 111 108 100 91 88 68 80 72 83 97 132 144 200 MB DIV 52 66 80 79 70 78 72 64 22 2 38 41 60 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 1 0 0 2 5 8 5 5 0 LAND (KM) 650 636 623 605 588 556 526 478 419 355 333 334 314 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 156.4 156.2 155.9 155.8 155.6 155.8 156.2 156.6 156.4 155.7 154.8 154.2 154.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 28 28 28 30 34 39 40 35 32 32 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 12. 12. 15. 13. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 28. 32. 34. 35. 41. 41. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP972015 INVEST 10/02/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972015 INVEST 10/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##