* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP982015 10/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 37 41 45 51 54 52 54 49 45 45 46 V (KT) LAND 30 32 37 41 45 51 54 52 54 49 45 45 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 42 45 46 47 43 37 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 18 20 20 18 18 18 27 24 28 18 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 3 0 2 3 4 9 4 1 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 208 155 157 156 150 175 184 195 197 204 210 197 199 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 160 160 161 163 163 161 161 164 164 163 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 51 52 57 58 56 57 58 59 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 21 22 23 24 24 22 24 21 18 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 124 136 148 148 152 175 168 164 148 132 100 77 70 200 MB DIV 39 56 60 49 24 44 33 60 74 30 6 13 -9 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 2 9 12 4 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1680 1677 1675 1689 1703 1707 1734 1769 1841 1947 2100 4036 3885 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.5 14.0 14.8 16.0 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.3 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 172.7 172.8 172.8 173.0 173.2 173.6 174.4 175.4 176.6 177.9 179.6 181.6 183.9 STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 1 2 2 4 7 8 8 8 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 48 47 47 47 47 46 49 49 47 46 52 72 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 8. 11. 7. 3. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 11. 15. 21. 24. 22. 24. 19. 15. 15. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP982015 INVEST 10/02/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP982015 INVEST 10/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##