* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 25 26 26 29 33 35 33 31 32 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 25 26 26 29 33 35 33 31 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 26 26 27 26 25 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 6 9 9 9 8 7 11 16 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -7 -6 1 12 10 8 12 10 7 11 4 SHEAR DIR 328 7 18 41 356 15 17 37 32 359 16 11 15 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 154 154 154 156 157 158 161 161 159 158 155 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 55 51 49 47 49 48 48 51 54 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 40 33 33 38 45 34 23 42 27 50 52 48 19 200 MB DIV 18 32 45 25 19 24 36 33 12 1 42 19 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -2 0 1 2 5 LAND (KM) 1855 1889 1925 1980 2035 2171 2299 2425 2537 2419 2247 2042 1830 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.4 13.2 12.7 12.3 11.9 11.7 11.9 12.4 13.2 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.6 126.2 126.8 127.3 128.5 129.7 130.9 132.2 133.6 135.1 136.8 138.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 19 19 19 23 28 33 34 26 25 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 10. 8. 6. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/02/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##