* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 107 106 102 94 87 78 74 68 62 55 40 V (KT) LAND 110 108 107 106 102 94 87 78 74 68 62 55 40 V (KT) LGE mod 110 109 108 107 105 95 83 74 70 69 68 61 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 20 25 24 24 25 25 19 27 27 38 54 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 -2 8 10 3 4 1 3 -2 -4 5 10 7 SHEAR DIR 312 300 294 295 294 289 246 229 210 218 243 262 262 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.6 28.8 27.7 27.3 27.4 26.5 24.5 18.1 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 168 167 164 150 134 128 130 122 106 81 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 149 153 154 149 133 116 109 111 106 96 76 78 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.3 -50.2 -49.5 -49.5 -49.8 -49.7 -50.3 -50.4 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 62 63 65 61 59 56 56 58 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 37 38 37 37 38 36 38 39 41 46 47 850 MB ENV VOR 137 141 149 153 143 146 163 164 147 149 152 165 154 200 MB DIV 61 79 94 99 63 39 44 51 32 58 58 63 55 700-850 TADV 29 29 36 70 68 48 39 31 21 0 29 83 87 LAND (KM) 390 489 590 746 900 865 765 750 617 508 522 412 901 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.8 27.9 30.2 32.9 35.3 37.3 39.4 41.4 43.6 46.0 LONG(DEG W) 74.3 73.6 72.9 71.9 70.9 69.0 68.2 67.4 66.0 62.8 57.4 50.2 41.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 12 14 14 14 13 12 14 19 26 31 34 HEAT CONTENT 39 51 51 36 39 20 7 8 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 2. -3. -12. -24. -33. -41. -47. -52. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -15. -20. -18. -14. -10. -7. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. 3. 3. 5. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -8. -16. -23. -32. -36. -42. -48. -55. -70. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 24( 61) 16( 67) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 19 0( 19) 0( 19) 0( 19) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED