* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 10/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 35 35 34 33 30 27 24 20 18 20 20 V (KT) LAND 35 36 35 35 34 33 30 27 24 20 18 20 20 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 36 35 33 30 28 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 12 14 14 18 27 31 24 28 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 5 0 8 7 4 1 2 2 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 154 117 84 91 76 24 21 30 29 46 76 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.3 28.0 27.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 151 152 152 150 150 146 139 137 133 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 127 126 126 125 124 125 124 118 118 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.0 -55.1 -54.6 -54.1 -54.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -52.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 43 41 42 45 50 57 62 60 54 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 11 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -8 -28 -52 -66 -83 -87 -87 -88 -92 25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -36 -24 -37 -39 -29 -8 -1 -18 -24 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 2 -1 3 0 1 4 3 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1613 1593 1574 1565 1555 1576 1607 1692 1809 1938 1689 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 2 1 1 1 3 5 6 10 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 25 25 25 24 25 27 29 12 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -4. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -17. -15. -15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 10/03/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 10/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 10/03/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)