* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP972015 10/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 55 63 68 70 70 72 72 72 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 55 63 68 70 70 72 72 72 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 41 47 53 60 63 64 64 65 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 2 3 9 12 16 16 14 8 4 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 0 0 -4 0 -1 2 2 3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 172 182 185 169 118 99 82 70 61 85 72 190 215 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 154 153 153 153 152 151 151 150 147 146 148 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.5 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -50.5 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 62 63 66 66 67 66 67 63 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 19 20 21 24 24 26 25 26 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 102 101 94 90 84 77 74 89 84 89 105 125 128 200 MB DIV 69 80 72 55 68 59 62 37 27 12 42 29 44 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 3 7 3 7 0 2 LAND (KM) 644 616 588 566 545 518 486 458 388 314 267 245 212 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.7 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 155.8 155.7 155.6 155.8 155.9 156.4 156.9 157.0 156.8 156.0 155.4 155.4 155.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 4 4 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 28 30 31 36 42 43 42 38 34 34 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 14. 15. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 33. 38. 40. 40. 42. 42. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP972015 INVEST 10/03/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 67% is 5.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 47% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 27% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972015 INVEST 10/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##