* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP982015 10/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 43 41 38 36 35 39 41 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 43 41 38 36 35 39 41 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 34 32 30 28 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 18 15 18 22 23 28 27 27 19 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 -1 -3 -3 1 1 3 3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 168 170 171 170 179 205 211 221 214 217 211 201 188 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 162 162 162 162 161 162 164 165 165 163 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 45 48 55 56 59 59 62 58 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 20 21 21 20 19 18 17 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 139 142 131 139 147 163 164 160 137 122 88 85 80 200 MB DIV 49 46 29 20 19 24 43 52 60 39 10 -2 5 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 3 5 5 3 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1620 1635 1650 1682 1714 1785 1841 1893 1982 2103 4153 4023 3819 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.3 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.7 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 172.4 172.8 173.1 173.5 174.0 175.0 175.9 176.8 178.0 179.4 181.3 183.3 185.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 46 46 45 46 47 50 51 52 49 52 79 79 80 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 13. 11. 8. 6. 5. 9. 11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP982015 INVEST 10/03/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP982015 INVEST 10/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##