* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 28 30 34 38 41 42 43 44 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 28 30 34 38 41 42 43 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 28 29 30 31 33 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 10 11 9 11 14 13 15 10 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -7 0 5 11 10 9 8 9 12 10 3 SHEAR DIR 2 18 26 6 10 18 42 45 68 58 56 20 11 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 155 155 156 158 158 158 158 159 159 158 157 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 52 51 53 55 58 58 60 60 66 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 25 27 34 37 29 24 27 20 12 35 22 9 -8 200 MB DIV 21 35 13 5 7 37 47 36 -4 -3 -2 -11 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1979 2023 2067 2138 2208 2357 2484 2611 2618 2525 2393 2261 2119 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.1 12.7 12.3 11.5 10.9 10.3 10.0 9.9 10.2 10.5 11.0 LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.1 127.6 128.1 128.6 129.7 130.7 131.7 132.5 133.5 134.7 135.9 137.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 18 18 18 22 26 31 33 35 35 27 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/03/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##