* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 106 103 98 91 82 78 71 67 58 48 35 V (KT) LAND 110 108 106 103 98 91 82 78 71 67 58 48 35 V (KT) LGE mod 110 110 110 107 102 92 81 73 71 71 66 53 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 27 27 25 26 24 24 19 25 30 49 53 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 5 3 3 1 1 0 -4 -2 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 312 304 303 287 272 252 232 195 215 231 252 260 271 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.2 27.3 27.4 27.3 26.4 19.9 18.2 16.2 POT. INT. (KT) 166 169 167 162 155 141 129 130 130 123 85 80 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 155 153 148 140 124 110 109 113 112 79 75 71 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -49.8 -50.1 -50.3 -50.6 -50.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 6 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 59 61 63 63 62 57 53 54 55 56 62 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 36 37 37 38 37 39 38 39 41 41 40 850 MB ENV VOR 134 138 136 133 136 137 147 143 130 120 112 112 103 200 MB DIV 73 55 66 64 37 43 27 34 13 29 39 56 51 700-850 TADV 26 28 45 54 58 41 25 22 5 6 25 43 61 LAND (KM) 474 614 756 911 886 850 832 724 662 617 449 743 1206 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.9 26.8 28.0 29.2 31.7 34.3 36.3 37.8 40.1 43.0 45.5 47.5 LONG(DEG W) 73.7 72.7 71.7 70.7 69.8 67.9 66.9 65.7 63.2 58.2 50.8 43.6 36.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 15 15 14 12 12 17 27 30 27 25 HEAT CONTENT 50 48 35 38 35 6 6 5 15 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -4. -14. -25. -35. -42. -49. -54. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -15. -19. -22. -21. -16. -12. -9. -9. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -12. -19. -27. -32. -39. -43. -52. -62. -75. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 21( 59) 12( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)