* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP972015 10/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 52 59 64 67 70 69 74 72 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 52 59 64 67 70 69 74 72 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 38 40 43 47 52 56 60 61 64 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 7 10 6 9 12 13 5 10 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -3 -6 -5 -2 0 -2 4 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 170 199 203 139 153 106 88 66 72 99 192 202 176 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 153 152 151 149 150 150 147 146 146 145 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.4 -50.7 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 -50.4 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 64 64 62 61 62 64 61 60 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 20 21 21 24 25 27 28 27 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR 99 88 80 77 81 75 85 94 105 99 131 140 148 200 MB DIV 85 77 74 62 79 31 24 6 9 24 72 73 49 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 3 4 3 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 629 591 552 516 480 412 387 365 311 270 244 234 199 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.8 16.9 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 154.7 154.7 154.7 154.9 155.1 155.9 156.4 156.4 155.8 155.2 154.9 154.9 155.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 4 4 4 1 2 3 3 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 27 29 30 36 40 40 36 33 32 32 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 17. 22. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 29. 34. 37. 40. 39. 44. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP972015 INVEST 10/03/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 61% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972015 INVEST 10/03/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##