* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP982015 10/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 30 29 27 25 25 27 30 33 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 30 29 27 25 25 27 30 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 29 28 27 24 22 20 20 21 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 15 18 23 25 27 25 25 21 18 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 2 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 176 171 163 176 190 200 218 226 222 229 244 275 274 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 162 162 163 162 163 164 166 164 164 163 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 46 50 53 53 55 54 57 57 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 19 20 19 18 17 15 13 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 140 135 138 143 148 140 140 114 93 60 62 41 30 200 MB DIV 23 17 20 19 -2 15 41 42 31 36 13 -11 5 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1631 1646 1662 1684 1706 1769 1849 1964 2132 4064 3866 3620 3374 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.4 16.4 17.3 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 172.6 173.0 173.3 173.7 174.1 175.1 176.4 177.9 179.8 181.9 184.3 186.7 189.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 46 45 46 46 47 50 51 48 53 75 73 72 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -3. 0. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP982015 INVEST 10/03/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP982015 INVEST 10/03/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##