* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 22 24 27 32 33 33 32 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 23 22 24 27 32 33 33 32 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 13 13 11 9 12 13 11 12 14 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -7 0 6 12 15 11 13 13 15 15 7 2 SHEAR DIR 6 18 8 5 13 359 25 49 46 34 24 25 36 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 155 156 158 158 160 161 159 158 157 154 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 9 9 7 7 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 53 54 51 52 51 52 55 55 58 60 61 64 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 23 30 30 27 28 24 34 28 51 68 71 57 25 200 MB DIV 31 17 0 6 5 40 65 40 24 35 12 19 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 1979 2030 2082 2153 2224 2367 2504 2575 2456 2304 2138 1978 1834 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.1 12.9 12.6 12.2 11.6 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.6 12.4 13.3 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.1 127.6 128.2 128.7 129.9 131.2 132.4 133.6 134.9 136.2 137.4 138.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 18 17 18 23 30 35 36 29 22 25 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 2. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/03/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/03/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##