* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 109 104 99 88 82 73 68 62 52 39 21 V (KT) LAND 115 112 109 104 99 88 82 73 68 62 52 39 21 V (KT) LGE mod 115 114 111 107 101 88 79 74 74 74 64 51 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 26 22 25 24 24 19 18 25 34 50 60 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 3 1 2 0 0 4 0 0 0 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 313 314 297 277 275 242 220 223 229 239 266 276 286 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.6 27.8 27.3 27.4 27.0 25.2 19.8 17.8 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 164 156 147 135 129 131 128 113 85 80 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 155 151 142 131 116 110 112 113 103 80 76 72 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -50.4 -50.3 -50.7 -51.0 -51.6 -51.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 64 65 61 55 53 58 57 62 67 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 36 36 38 36 38 35 37 39 41 40 37 850 MB ENV VOR 146 141 131 131 131 143 138 116 114 104 140 139 127 200 MB DIV 65 86 67 47 32 47 25 32 39 47 61 86 67 700-850 TADV 53 66 63 58 50 40 15 17 -4 23 57 118 182 LAND (KM) 595 756 891 921 894 878 827 738 687 622 654 1208 1381 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.7 27.8 29.2 30.5 32.9 35.1 37.0 38.9 41.1 43.7 46.0 47.9 LONG(DEG W) 72.6 71.5 70.4 69.3 68.3 66.9 66.0 63.7 60.0 54.0 45.9 37.1 28.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 16 16 14 12 13 15 21 29 33 32 30 HEAT CONTENT 58 32 33 30 12 4 5 7 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 0. -7. -19. -31. -41. -49. -56. -61. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -16. -20. -23. -20. -14. -10. -7. -8. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -16. -27. -33. -42. -47. -53. -63. -76. -94. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 28( 50) 21( 61) 11( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED