* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 10/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 26 25 26 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 26 25 26 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 26 26 26 25 22 19 16 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 15 7 12 23 34 38 48 49 55 53 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 4 12 5 2 0 4 1 3 3 12 3 SHEAR DIR 78 87 94 55 350 335 340 323 335 345 344 328 336 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.1 27.5 26.8 26.2 25.8 25.3 23.6 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 146 145 138 132 124 118 115 112 100 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 124 122 123 120 115 109 105 104 102 91 90 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.0 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 36 38 40 42 45 54 56 55 56 53 50 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 3 41 38 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -35 -36 -53 -55 -31 26 -25 -62 -77 -75 -34 -46 200 MB DIV -54 -48 -42 -30 -15 16 1 -27 -32 -30 -39 24 -18 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 5 5 8 30 24 37 59 82 42 37 LAND (KM) 1645 1649 1654 1664 1675 1753 1584 1494 1521 1682 1954 1706 1226 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.9 30.6 32.5 33.8 34.7 35.3 36.0 36.6 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 53.1 53.3 53.5 53.8 54.0 53.6 51.4 48.1 44.4 39.9 34.5 28.4 22.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 6 11 14 16 18 20 24 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 12 10 9 2 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -4. -11. -17. -22. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. 23. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -6. -9. -16. -23. -33. -6. -20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 10/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 10/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 10/03/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)