* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 49 57 65 69 70 70 72 72 67 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 49 57 65 69 70 70 72 72 67 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 44 48 54 61 66 71 75 73 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 7 7 2 10 7 8 9 12 18 25 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 -1 -4 -5 -4 -4 -5 -8 -1 -2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 223 224 183 170 152 81 83 93 117 166 199 196 195 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 152 151 151 149 149 149 146 145 143 141 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.1 -50.4 -49.8 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 63 60 62 61 60 60 58 59 60 61 59 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 19 19 21 24 24 26 27 28 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 87 80 79 84 83 74 90 106 105 118 135 154 141 200 MB DIV 63 58 59 72 62 35 18 5 13 55 64 59 -3 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 567 520 472 445 422 400 336 271 258 291 287 272 283 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.4 16.1 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.4 18.2 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 154.5 154.7 154.9 155.4 155.8 156.5 156.8 156.1 154.8 153.7 153.2 152.6 152.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 5 6 4 4 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 29 31 33 37 36 34 30 31 30 25 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 14. 15. 16. 19. 21. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 30. 34. 35. 35. 37. 37. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 61% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##