* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP982015 10/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 25 24 23 21 18 16 17 18 17 17 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 25 24 23 21 18 16 17 18 17 17 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 28 28 26 23 21 19 18 17 17 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 21 23 29 29 33 31 30 30 26 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 5 5 6 3 0 -1 -2 -4 -8 -7 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 155 156 166 180 193 204 218 222 224 224 245 266 283 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.4 28.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 162 163 162 161 160 163 165 161 155 146 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 52 55 54 51 48 50 54 55 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 17 18 17 16 15 14 13 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 155 149 144 143 134 121 99 80 61 42 22 -15 -36 200 MB DIV 8 -2 3 19 10 36 38 35 22 30 5 12 22 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -5 -4 0 0 1 3 4 5 5 2 LAND (KM) 1636 1598 1562 1538 1518 1538 1622 1794 2029 3926 3688 3399 3132 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.7 13.2 13.9 14.6 16.2 17.6 18.5 19.3 20.2 21.2 22.4 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 171.2 171.3 171.3 171.6 171.9 173.1 174.6 176.6 179.1 182.0 185.0 187.7 190.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 8 9 10 10 11 13 15 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 46 48 48 47 44 46 44 36 45 70 60 54 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -6. -10. -15. -18. -20. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -13. -12. -13. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP982015 INVEST 10/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP982015 INVEST 10/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##