* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 10/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 22 20 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 22 19 24 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 24 26 26 27 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 21 30 36 49 57 66 63 58 46 35 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 6 0 0 0 -8 -13 -16 -6 -1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 261 235 228 229 229 220 229 230 239 238 237 240 245 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 30.0 31.0 30.4 29.1 25.8 23.0 21.4 20.0 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 163 167 173 171 158 123 94 77 62 62 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.9 -56.3 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 6 8 4 5 2 3 0 3 0 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 63 61 60 61 62 57 59 65 65 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 8 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 0 3 9 -20 -37 -28 -39 -25 -24 23 49 200 MB DIV 30 50 85 76 58 64 50 41 24 43 39 30 28 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 10 8 12 22 26 22 37 -1 31 -9 LAND (KM) 563 485 391 258 153 -14 -263 -553 -821 -898 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.5 19.4 20.7 22.0 24.6 27.2 30.0 32.5 34.9 37.3 39.6 41.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 109.9 109.6 109.2 108.8 107.6 106.7 105.3 103.8 102.1 100.7 99.4 96.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 11 14 14 14 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 39 34 26 24 40 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 771 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 24. 30. 31. 30. 28. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -6. -18. -35. -52. -63. -68. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -9. -17. -28. -35. -36. -35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 10/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 10/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##