* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 18 16 17 22 26 30 30 27 24 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 18 16 17 22 26 30 30 27 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 19 19 19 20 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 6 7 4 8 4 5 7 16 25 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 8 13 16 18 11 12 7 6 7 2 2 SHEAR DIR 359 350 352 342 325 345 38 81 15 11 10 20 20 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 154 154 153 153 154 154 155 154 153 150 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 52 51 50 49 46 45 46 48 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 11 15 31 35 45 58 57 46 25 23 -5 -41 200 MB DIV 14 12 27 13 21 35 17 39 29 -11 -34 -53 -31 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1715 1739 1763 1790 1818 1857 1878 1916 1980 2067 2146 2215 2259 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.1 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.3 15.3 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 124.0 124.1 124.2 124.3 124.4 124.7 125.1 125.8 126.8 128.2 129.8 131.7 133.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 2 1 3 4 6 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 21 19 18 18 18 19 21 26 31 23 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -3. 1. 5. 5. 2. -1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##