* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 127 118 109 100 85 80 72 66 57 50 42 31 V (KT) LAND 130 127 118 109 100 85 80 72 66 57 50 42 31 V (KT) LGE mod 130 131 125 115 106 90 83 80 79 76 64 51 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 26 27 26 21 21 12 21 27 45 51 52 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 0 0 0 -2 4 3 6 2 8 0 2 SHEAR DIR 310 304 284 271 250 232 228 240 233 255 255 264 280 SST (C) 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.2 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.6 21.9 19.9 15.4 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 163 156 148 140 131 131 130 124 94 87 76 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 151 142 132 122 112 113 112 111 88 82 73 71 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.5 -50.4 -50.9 -50.4 -50.9 -50.5 -51.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 69 68 67 66 56 51 54 57 55 56 61 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 35 36 36 36 37 35 37 41 45 49 48 850 MB ENV VOR 133 123 121 123 124 121 109 91 105 123 137 123 116 200 MB DIV 83 56 38 30 34 34 48 25 42 64 81 70 45 700-850 TADV 52 51 43 34 28 31 0 5 -13 41 64 111 81 LAND (KM) 733 890 970 939 936 920 858 761 722 603 1072 1523 882 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.8 29.1 30.5 31.8 33.7 35.9 37.9 39.7 42.0 44.6 47.1 49.4 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 69.8 68.7 67.7 66.8 66.1 63.7 60.3 56.5 49.3 39.6 30.0 22.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 16 13 12 16 17 24 34 37 32 29 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 25 8 3 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -2. -6. -17. -30. -45. -58. -69. -76. -81. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -14. -21. -25. -28. -23. -16. -11. -9. -9. -10. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -1. 2. 6. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -12. -21. -30. -45. -50. -58. -64. -73. -80. -88. -99. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 32( 61) 22( 70) 10( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED