* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 10/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 28 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 28 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 26 24 21 23 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 8 10 17 28 28 32 33 36 31 46 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 11 4 3 0 -2 2 5 10 13 6 0 SHEAR DIR 82 88 71 345 348 341 354 352 350 347 326 329 337 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.4 25.8 24.7 23.0 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 147 146 137 131 127 121 117 108 97 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 126 124 124 119 114 111 108 107 100 89 87 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 3 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 38 42 46 47 51 56 52 54 53 53 50 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 9 50 49 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -38 -48 -50 -45 2 31 -34 -56 -99 -5 -40 -66 200 MB DIV -48 -40 -28 -12 25 13 -14 -32 -17 -66 0 -17 -7 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 5 5 16 21 27 38 87 35 82 56 LAND (KM) 1598 1599 1601 1631 1662 1736 1625 1574 1571 1724 2055 1455 991 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.7 29.2 30.9 32.2 33.1 34.2 35.4 36.4 36.9 36.6 LONG(DEG W) 53.7 54.0 54.2 54.3 54.5 53.2 50.6 47.9 44.4 39.0 32.4 25.6 20.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 11 12 14 19 25 27 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 10 7 2 18 13 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 21. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -4. 33. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -6. -12. -20. -19. 11. -1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 10/03/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 10/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 10/03/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED