* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 49 55 59 62 63 62 62 61 58 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 49 55 59 62 63 62 62 61 58 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 44 48 52 56 59 60 62 61 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 4 4 8 7 10 7 14 20 19 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -4 -4 -4 -2 0 -3 -4 -4 0 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 236 170 149 103 91 110 69 99 121 188 210 196 188 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 150 150 150 149 147 146 146 145 144 140 136 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -50.6 -51.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -50.8 -50.3 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 62 64 64 62 63 63 63 61 63 60 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 18 19 19 20 21 22 22 23 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 77 79 81 75 70 76 71 93 115 151 124 125 76 200 MB DIV 55 58 71 63 42 11 11 27 28 73 45 23 11 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 535 500 465 426 391 344 322 320 315 344 399 441 492 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.3 18.3 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 154.1 154.2 154.3 154.8 155.2 155.5 154.8 154.3 154.0 153.2 151.8 150.8 150.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 4 2 3 2 3 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 28 29 31 32 30 31 32 36 19 28 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 9. 11. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 27. 27. 26. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/03/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##