* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT CP082015 10/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 28 28 31 32 36 43 49 55 58 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 28 28 31 32 36 43 49 55 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 31 33 36 41 50 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 22 22 20 18 13 11 6 4 5 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 8 5 5 5 2 1 2 2 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 138 136 142 155 162 156 183 200 209 148 72 77 70 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 162 163 163 164 170 172 172 172 173 172 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -50.5 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 56 55 55 59 60 65 65 68 69 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 17 16 14 13 12 11 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 165 169 178 182 179 176 171 168 152 140 136 132 130 200 MB DIV 0 0 18 8 6 48 30 33 62 16 17 10 25 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1690 1737 1784 1832 1881 1932 2011 2154 2347 3978 3815 3597 3381 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.0 14.8 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 171.6 172.0 172.4 173.0 173.5 174.2 175.5 177.5 179.9 182.2 184.2 187.3 191.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 4 5 8 11 12 11 13 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 48 50 51 53 55 58 56 48 59 89 90 99 103 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. 1. 2. 6. 13. 19. 25. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP082015 EIGHT 10/03/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP082015 EIGHT 10/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##