* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 10/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 18 25 35 40 52 59 66 55 58 50 39 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 3 1 3 -6 -7 -13 -6 -6 -6 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 242 229 233 224 217 225 227 236 239 247 239 244 259 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 30.0 30.4 30.8 29.6 28.5 25.7 23.5 21.7 20.3 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 164 167 171 173 162 150 121 98 80 65 62 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.8 -54.7 -55.5 -56.9 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 6 4 2 3 1 3 0 1 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 63 61 59 62 58 52 54 63 69 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -4 -3 1 -7 -38 -47 -39 -42 -40 -13 10 27 200 MB DIV 46 87 76 64 56 54 33 28 27 45 42 52 16 700-850 TADV 0 4 7 1 11 20 17 31 10 18 1 25 -6 LAND (KM) 509 402 323 220 97 -186 -461 -687 -694 -759 -940 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 19.0 20.2 21.7 23.1 25.7 28.4 30.7 32.6 34.5 37.0 39.3 40.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.7 109.3 108.8 108.2 107.6 106.4 105.1 103.5 101.8 100.3 99.5 98.4 95.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 13 14 16 15 15 14 13 12 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 41 29 24 36 41 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 25. 31. 33. 33. 32. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -6. -19. -36. -54. -66. -72. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -16. -24. -37. -44. -47. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 10/03/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 10/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##