* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 107 101 97 93 84 78 72 68 61 46 39 28 V (KT) LAND 115 107 101 97 93 84 78 72 68 61 46 39 28 V (KT) LGE mod 115 107 99 93 89 81 78 79 79 67 55 44 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 26 24 20 23 19 18 24 33 47 54 45 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 0 -4 -3 3 4 7 4 1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 308 296 276 262 247 231 237 243 242 258 262 262 279 SST (C) 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.4 27.3 27.1 25.3 22.0 16.7 13.9 13.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 158 149 143 138 130 130 129 113 94 78 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 146 133 124 119 113 113 114 103 88 75 69 67 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.1 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 -50.8 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 66 62 54 53 61 56 51 56 56 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 35 36 36 35 38 41 43 42 46 45 850 MB ENV VOR 108 101 99 105 119 109 102 99 107 141 120 139 117 200 MB DIV 47 44 38 51 60 29 25 40 58 78 61 59 -18 700-850 TADV 64 53 35 40 29 14 12 -18 -11 50 46 59 54 LAND (KM) 855 1019 1020 986 968 937 788 753 658 781 1388 1250 836 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.8 30.1 31.3 32.4 34.6 36.9 38.8 40.8 43.3 46.3 48.8 50.8 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 68.3 67.0 66.6 66.1 64.6 62.1 58.2 52.3 44.4 34.6 27.2 22.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 14 12 12 14 17 21 28 35 33 23 19 HEAT CONTENT 37 22 7 3 3 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 17 CX,CY: 14/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -4. -12. -23. -34. -45. -55. -62. -67. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -15. -19. -21. -17. -13. -10. -9. -10. -11. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 4. 6. 4. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -18. -22. -31. -37. -43. -47. -54. -69. -76. -87. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 23( 47) 14( 54) 9( 58) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)