* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 10/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 28 28 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 28 28 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 29 29 28 27 25 22 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 10 6 11 19 26 24 28 31 24 31 30 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 11 8 6 5 -3 1 1 2 7 12 7 3 SHEAR DIR 86 89 26 354 348 356 11 5 25 15 360 2 357 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.0 24.8 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 144 142 136 130 127 123 120 110 107 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 124 122 121 117 112 110 110 110 100 97 94 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 4 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 41 44 46 49 53 56 57 56 52 51 46 44 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -58 -56 -56 -50 1 -22 -59 -82 -78 -30 -60 -63 200 MB DIV -42 -25 -7 -3 0 -6 -26 -24 -22 -12 -2 -9 -17 700-850 TADV 1 0 3 2 2 13 9 20 31 54 91 63 25 LAND (KM) 1639 1651 1663 1720 1778 1798 1742 1713 1723 1874 1943 1468 1086 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.7 29.3 30.6 31.4 32.2 33.3 34.4 35.1 34.8 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 53.1 53.2 53.3 53.1 53.0 51.0 48.7 46.3 42.9 37.9 31.8 26.2 22.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 7 8 11 11 13 18 24 24 20 18 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 13 9 6 1 18 17 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -14. -21. -27. -33. -40. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 10/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 10/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 10/04/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED