* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 44 50 56 62 65 68 65 66 62 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 44 50 56 62 65 68 65 66 62 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 40 44 48 52 56 61 63 60 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 10 14 13 15 9 6 15 17 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 -2 0 -2 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 91 91 91 77 76 72 59 76 135 190 190 185 175 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 155 153 152 151 151 149 147 144 142 137 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -50.3 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 66 68 69 68 70 69 71 68 68 66 63 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 17 18 19 20 20 22 21 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 78 72 66 65 59 59 59 74 97 134 133 109 74 200 MB DIV 59 75 81 75 48 25 10 35 72 60 74 7 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 675 643 613 583 555 522 493 473 482 501 528 504 482 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.5 16.2 17.7 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 154.6 154.9 155.1 155.3 155.6 155.5 155.0 154.4 153.6 152.5 151.2 150.4 150.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 26 27 28 29 28 28 27 30 22 29 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 7. 10. 9. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 21. 27. 30. 33. 30. 31. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##