* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT CP082015 10/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 24 23 24 26 33 40 45 51 56 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 24 23 24 26 33 40 45 51 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 26 26 26 27 30 34 40 48 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 24 19 17 15 12 9 5 7 13 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 5 10 12 2 3 3 3 -1 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 140 145 152 162 161 150 158 181 135 113 91 90 72 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.5 30.5 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 162 163 164 167 171 172 172 171 172 171 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 57 55 60 64 66 67 67 67 68 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 178 186 185 179 180 180 175 166 145 141 132 122 135 200 MB DIV 16 11 16 13 20 33 32 30 36 3 1 19 15 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 3 2 0 2 LAND (KM) 1753 1792 1831 1872 1913 1977 2069 2227 4080 3893 3741 3529 3310 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.5 14.9 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 171.8 172.3 172.7 173.3 173.8 174.8 176.3 178.4 180.8 183.2 185.4 188.2 191.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 7 9 11 12 12 12 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 45 47 49 52 55 58 51 49 86 90 94 100 104 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. 3. 10. 15. 21. 26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP082015 EIGHT 10/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP082015 EIGHT 10/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##