* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 15 14 14 16 14 13 16 19 24 36 45 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 13 15 12 9 10 8 4 0 0 -5 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 327 330 332 330 332 354 334 309 291 330 356 4 15 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 154 154 155 156 156 154 151 145 140 136 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 51 52 51 50 49 46 47 44 42 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 9 7 20 38 38 35 8 -19 -39 -71 -89 -107 200 MB DIV 40 15 1 5 20 31 22 19 -13 -38 -48 -49 -45 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 0 1 -1 2 2 3 4 7 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1635 1633 1632 1626 1619 1591 1562 1551 1565 1596 1618 1686 1790 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.7 13.7 14.1 14.7 15.4 16.3 17.2 18.1 18.8 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 122.9 122.7 122.5 122.4 122.3 122.4 122.7 123.3 124.3 125.5 126.8 128.3 130.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 2 1 1 3 4 6 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 21 21 21 22 26 33 34 21 15 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -12. -15. -18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##