* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP952015 10/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 16 17 24 26 26 27 27 27 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 30 34 44 50 59 70 63 59 55 48 32 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 3 0 -5 -12 -12 -6 -9 -3 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 233 232 222 216 218 227 229 236 240 241 239 262 262 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.6 30.8 30.0 29.0 26.6 24.0 22.3 20.8 19.9 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 166 169 173 173 167 156 130 103 85 69 61 65 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.7 -54.3 -55.3 -56.5 -56.9 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 9 3 5 1 3 0 3 0 2 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 60 60 61 60 56 55 65 69 71 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 4 4 -8 -37 -50 -44 -42 -32 -40 -15 21 0 200 MB DIV 72 74 67 57 56 42 37 17 46 34 27 20 4 700-850 TADV 3 5 6 15 17 17 21 12 25 -2 25 18 -5 LAND (KM) 335 275 180 34 -111 -370 -639 -713 -778 -908 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 21.0 22.3 23.7 25.0 27.6 30.0 32.0 33.9 36.0 38.3 39.9 39.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 108.4 107.9 107.3 106.7 105.6 104.1 102.8 101.5 100.7 100.2 98.6 94.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 15 14 14 13 11 11 11 10 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 25 29 44 34 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. 0. 6. 15. 24. 30. 31. 30. 29. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -8. -24. -44. -63. -75. -79. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -13. -25. -38. -46. -46. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 MARTY 10/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 MARTY 10/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##