* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 96 92 88 82 78 72 65 59 51 39 32 20 V (KT) LAND 105 96 92 88 82 78 72 65 59 51 39 32 20 V (KT) LGE mod 105 96 89 84 80 76 75 74 67 57 48 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 22 15 20 23 15 23 29 48 56 48 50 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 -1 -4 3 1 5 -3 0 1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 294 295 261 235 245 229 256 236 257 257 271 280 286 SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.3 20.8 20.1 15.7 13.6 13.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 149 141 136 132 131 130 122 88 86 76 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 132 123 117 113 113 114 109 82 80 72 69 68 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -50.9 -51.4 -50.8 -51.5 -51.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 68 65 60 56 50 55 57 52 49 54 57 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 30 29 28 30 30 31 34 34 32 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 105 104 115 128 118 94 60 84 105 112 85 77 23 200 MB DIV 42 31 48 47 20 58 19 31 25 51 40 44 16 700-850 TADV 39 39 28 35 41 9 15 -39 -4 -14 38 85 32 LAND (KM) 1013 969 946 945 956 861 723 705 568 969 1545 1065 647 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 30.3 31.6 32.7 33.7 35.7 38.0 40.3 42.5 44.8 47.0 49.5 52.3 LONG(DEG W) 68.2 67.5 66.8 66.2 65.7 64.1 60.9 55.7 49.0 40.9 32.3 24.9 19.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 11 11 15 20 25 30 31 30 24 21 HEAT CONTENT 22 8 3 3 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 18 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -20. -30. -40. -48. -55. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -12. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 1. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -13. -17. -23. -27. -33. -40. -46. -54. -66. -73. -85. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 13( 36) 8( 42) 6( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)