* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 10/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 29 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 29 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 27 26 29 35 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 6 8 12 17 23 29 24 24 8 17 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 4 8 5 -2 -1 1 5 12 7 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 83 64 34 13 4 9 7 25 44 5 26 53 67 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.8 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 141 139 134 130 127 125 122 124 122 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 122 121 119 115 112 111 111 110 112 108 106 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 42 44 47 50 57 59 59 55 52 52 46 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 5 3 12 32 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -52 -57 -48 -47 -32 -58 -66 -79 -37 -73 -58 -53 200 MB DIV -26 -16 9 0 16 -9 -33 -34 -43 -11 0 -23 -10 700-850 TADV -1 2 4 2 6 8 16 13 36 -2 26 33 15 LAND (KM) 1657 1676 1696 1772 1848 1898 1842 1826 1868 2069 1921 1591 1358 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.5 29.0 29.8 30.6 31.3 32.1 32.3 31.5 30.3 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 52.8 52.8 52.8 52.3 51.8 49.9 48.0 45.7 42.3 37.8 33.4 30.2 28.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 7 8 9 10 12 17 19 17 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 16 8 2 1 1 1 10 6 6 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -1. 18. 20. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -7. 10. 9. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 10/04/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 10/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 10/04/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED