* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 45 52 54 59 65 68 67 62 60 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 45 52 54 59 65 68 67 62 60 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 41 44 47 49 53 58 58 54 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 12 14 15 12 15 9 7 7 14 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 0 3 7 4 1 -4 -1 1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 103 91 64 68 82 57 77 85 144 218 196 197 190 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 152 152 152 150 147 144 143 140 133 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 72 74 74 74 71 68 64 60 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 22 22 25 24 24 26 28 28 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 70 58 62 61 57 66 70 96 121 115 109 91 80 200 MB DIV 72 73 59 49 21 23 32 56 73 60 60 14 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 5 9 4 1 1 2 6 3 LAND (KM) 650 629 609 589 570 529 518 527 535 526 477 491 644 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.1 15.8 16.9 18.7 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 154.2 154.4 154.6 154.8 155.0 154.8 154.3 153.5 152.5 151.7 151.2 150.2 148.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 5 5 5 8 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 26 26 27 27 26 25 25 24 23 23 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 10. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 6. 7. 10. 12. 12. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 19. 24. 30. 33. 32. 27. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/04/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##