* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 13 14 15 16 8 13 20 31 40 42 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 17 16 12 11 11 7 3 2 0 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 322 332 335 343 360 9 342 291 300 343 354 1 9 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.3 27.7 26.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 154 152 154 156 157 156 153 147 141 133 126 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 50 49 49 50 50 48 47 45 45 44 41 36 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 28 44 52 46 34 -1 -17 -41 -46 -73 -82 200 MB DIV 21 9 9 24 29 26 18 -1 -27 -31 -76 -47 -30 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 -1 0 -1 2 4 6 5 3 0 LAND (KM) 1618 1627 1636 1636 1636 1624 1598 1616 1661 1687 1744 1842 1924 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.9 13.9 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.6 17.7 18.8 20.0 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 122.9 122.9 122.8 122.8 122.8 123.1 123.5 124.4 125.7 127.3 129.0 131.0 133.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 0 1 3 5 7 8 10 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 22 22 22 24 30 35 23 16 10 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -12. -16. -17. -16. -15. -16. -19. -23. -25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/04/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##