* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP952015 10/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 30 33 43 50 57 62 52 57 59 49 42 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 7 4 -3 -5 -7 0 -4 -10 -4 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 236 222 207 210 219 222 230 234 249 243 255 255 265 SST (C) 29.8 30.1 30.5 30.7 30.7 29.6 28.7 27.4 26.0 24.3 22.8 21.8 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 168 172 173 173 162 152 138 123 106 91 81 78 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.5 -53.2 -54.1 -54.7 -55.8 -56.3 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 7 4 1 2 0 2 0 2 0 700-500 MB RH 61 58 55 53 53 60 59 56 55 58 61 60 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 9 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -4 -10 -32 -44 -65 -56 -45 -32 -12 -45 -17 -12 200 MB DIV 61 51 80 86 70 22 22 26 43 31 52 38 -6 700-850 TADV 1 5 9 6 12 22 18 5 6 5 27 4 24 LAND (KM) 270 191 37 -104 -245 -533 -551 -506 -496 -555 -711 -869 -860 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.9 23.3 24.6 25.8 28.3 30.2 31.4 32.4 33.9 35.9 37.6 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 107.7 107.0 106.4 105.7 104.1 102.2 100.4 98.9 97.6 96.2 94.0 89.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 14 14 14 11 9 8 10 12 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 27 39 33 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 6. 15. 24. 30. 33. 33. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -8. -22. -41. -59. -72. -78. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -8. -13. -14. -15. -14. -14. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -17. -24. -36. -48. -57. -60. -60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 MARTY 10/04/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 150.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 MARTY 10/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##