* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 91 85 81 77 73 68 59 50 38 30 17 V (KT) LAND 100 95 91 85 81 77 73 68 59 50 38 30 17 V (KT) LGE mod 100 96 90 85 82 79 80 78 68 57 47 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 13 20 19 15 14 21 36 48 53 49 44 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -1 -4 0 5 4 3 0 -1 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 273 243 238 241 238 239 240 242 247 262 268 285 292 SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.1 25.1 22.4 19.2 16.3 14.9 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 142 136 132 130 131 130 112 95 83 76 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 124 117 112 110 114 115 101 87 77 72 69 68 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -49.9 -50.1 -50.3 -50.7 -50.5 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -51.8 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 66 61 56 52 48 55 52 52 53 56 57 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 37 35 35 36 37 39 40 40 38 40 37 850 MB ENV VOR 97 113 112 108 105 88 89 87 130 140 128 114 66 200 MB DIV 40 51 32 21 31 32 30 47 49 73 45 11 -10 700-850 TADV 49 31 23 21 14 6 -14 -19 -31 15 48 74 57 LAND (KM) 993 978 983 982 909 813 740 634 785 1276 1540 1004 613 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.6 32.7 33.7 34.7 36.5 38.8 41.0 42.6 44.3 45.9 48.4 51.6 LONG(DEG W) 67.1 66.5 65.8 65.4 65.0 62.7 58.7 52.7 45.0 37.0 29.2 23.2 19.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 11 12 16 22 28 30 29 26 22 20 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 4 6 3 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 18 CX,CY: 12/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -19. -28. -37. -45. -51. -55. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -15. -19. -23. -27. -32. -40. -50. -62. -70. -83. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 12( 31) 8( 37) 6( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)