* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 10/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 39 40 40 41 41 42 43 46 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 39 40 40 41 41 42 43 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 33 34 35 35 34 34 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 12 21 23 13 13 12 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 13 9 7 5 6 7 7 6 3 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 256 243 291 298 281 278 263 267 256 234 244 229 250 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 148 150 150 150 153 158 162 163 164 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 150 152 153 152 152 156 160 160 156 153 152 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 9 12 13 11 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 70 69 68 67 68 71 70 71 73 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 9 8 7 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 12 9 0 -9 -9 -15 -19 -26 -47 -69 -63 -69 200 MB DIV 96 106 113 97 51 16 3 14 28 16 34 74 51 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -14 -13 -8 -4 3 -9 -5 -1 4 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1590 1474 1364 1271 1189 1075 976 961 896 837 780 647 620 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.2 11.5 12.2 12.9 13.9 15.1 16.8 18.4 20.0 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 38.3 39.6 40.9 42.2 43.5 46.0 48.6 51.2 54.0 56.3 58.3 59.8 60.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 23 21 23 29 31 35 49 71 67 55 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. 17. 18. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 10/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 4.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912015 INVEST 10/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 10/04/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)