* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 48 53 56 56 54 51 48 46 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 48 53 56 56 54 51 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 40 42 44 46 50 51 49 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 18 17 13 13 13 12 14 20 25 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 1 2 0 -4 -5 -1 2 -1 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 84 77 74 85 86 64 93 149 203 211 223 220 238 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.5 26.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 152 152 151 150 148 145 142 140 135 125 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 69 70 72 72 72 71 70 67 64 63 57 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 73 75 69 63 68 77 78 91 119 123 99 48 11 200 MB DIV 88 73 56 57 55 17 31 63 67 44 -29 18 52 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 -2 -5 0 0 2 2 -1 LAND (KM) 626 597 568 540 512 472 454 467 483 471 429 654 1079 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.5 16.3 17.6 19.4 22.2 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 154.9 155.0 155.2 155.2 155.2 154.9 154.3 153.0 151.7 150.8 150.7 149.2 146.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 3 5 7 8 8 12 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 23 24 24 24 24 26 21 30 19 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -18. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 21. 21. 19. 16. 13. 11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##