* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT CP082015 10/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 20 19 19 19 20 26 35 42 48 54 59 V (KT) LAND 25 22 20 19 19 19 20 26 35 42 48 54 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 20 20 19 20 22 26 31 39 48 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 14 9 11 9 8 7 4 3 9 14 15 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 12 11 7 6 5 4 0 3 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 150 161 138 133 144 132 180 145 123 75 86 64 358 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 162 163 165 167 171 173 173 172 170 169 169 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 59 61 63 69 69 68 67 67 67 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 182 178 176 173 161 161 152 143 138 146 140 147 132 200 MB DIV -5 7 35 20 19 34 25 34 3 8 8 10 -33 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 3 3 1 0 7 LAND (KM) 1777 1803 1831 1880 1931 2064 2217 4082 3860 3652 3476 3320 3186 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.9 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.3 15.8 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 171.6 172.1 172.5 173.3 174.1 176.1 178.3 180.9 183.7 186.5 189.2 191.7 194.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 6 8 9 11 12 13 14 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 37 39 43 51 55 50 48 88 90 96 102 103 103 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 1. 10. 17. 23. 29. 34. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP082015 EIGHT 10/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP082015 EIGHT 10/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##