* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP992015 10/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 51 58 57 51 43 36 29 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 51 58 57 51 43 36 29 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 35 41 44 44 41 34 27 21 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 7 7 12 3 26 47 45 36 35 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 -4 -8 -1 7 4 SHEAR DIR 51 35 41 27 18 27 278 237 237 241 264 263 247 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.2 26.3 26.1 26.2 25.7 24.3 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 151 150 148 143 135 126 124 126 123 112 91 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 72 69 68 69 68 65 65 61 48 48 46 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 10 11 14 16 15 15 15 15 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 22 21 21 43 52 76 100 100 89 30 -38 -40 -93 200 MB DIV 104 90 78 70 68 44 69 90 45 6 12 103 121 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -5 -5 -1 -1 6 13 13 31 26 -13 LAND (KM) 1414 1335 1258 1198 1139 1011 914 869 894 924 1089 1535 1402 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.4 14.1 14.6 15.1 16.4 17.8 19.8 21.6 23.4 25.8 29.8 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 143.6 144.0 144.4 144.8 145.1 145.8 146.3 146.5 146.5 146.9 146.6 144.4 139.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 7 7 9 10 9 11 17 30 38 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 17 19 19 21 15 7 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. -1. -9. -15. -19. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 9. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 26. 33. 32. 26. 18. 11. 4. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP992015 INVEST 10/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP992015 INVEST 10/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##